Mound (MND) Update as-of 12-Sep-2021
Hello Mound Fam,
The MND vault reward distribution & claiming has already been launched officially.
Even the polyBUNNY and QBT tokens in the vault haven’t been farming yet.
But it seems we will have at least one of them doing that this week.
So, yeah, let’s begin with our norm!
Highlights this week
- MND Vault FAQ -> Link
- MND Vault will start QBT farming before 26 Sept. Plus, the team begins researching and discovering Game and NFT Products -> Link
EDIT: Updated from Before “19 Sept” to “26 Sept” to not create false hope - The principal + rewards of polyBUNNY tokens (in polyBUNNY maxi pool) held by the Dev team = 868,256 + 367,773 = 1,236,029 tokens. Plus, additional “135,380.514” polyBUNNY sitting in the wallet without farming -> Link
- The new product, BUNNY Prediction Market will be launched on 14 Sept 2021, 06:00 UTC along with burning 10,237 BUNNY got from the pots -> Link
- Our Mound Family member, KJ, published the PancakeBunny survey result. Please take your time to read this. It’s very interesting :) -> Link
Mound TVL & Status
As-of 12th September 2021 2:30 UTC, the Mound Vault numbers are as follows:
TVL (Total Value Locked) = 41.372 Million USD
BUNNY tokens = 3.589 Million tokens
QBT tokens = 100 Million tokens
Total MND Staked = 2.073 Million tokens (Around 76% of total supplies)
Effective value of MND token (TVL / MND tokens) = 15.22 USD
APR (Calculated from Effective Value) = 120.34%
Current Market Price = 11.18 USD
APR (Calculated from market price) = 163.82%
Rewards Distribution Mechanism = 30-Days-Amortization
Note : I’ve been monitoring the MND reward distribution and already shared the monitored results along with my analysis in the Insights section to explain why I think the MND vault is using this mechanism.
Insights
(1) When will 1 million polyBUNNY tokens be added to the Mound Vault?
Even the principal of polyBUNNY tokens in the polyBUNNY maxi pool held by the Dev team (868,256 tokens) plus additional polyBUNNY (135,380.514 tokens) sitting in the wallet already reached 1,003,636 tokens.
So far, we haven’t got any good news regarding adding polyBUNNY to the MND Vault.
I have to admit that my assumption regarding polyBUNNY farming date on previous articles were totally wrong and I do apologize for creating false hope in my articles.
From now on, I will try to be more realistic with this polyBUNNY thing.
According to what the team stated that once 1 million polyBUNNY has been “minted” to the team, it will be added to the Mound Vault.
So, as-of September 12, 2021 02:45UTC, the total polyBUNNY supply is around 6,230,803 tokens. With this number, it means there are 6,230,803 x (0.15 / 1.15) = 812,713.43 tokens minted to the team.
Plus, the team burned 320,500.946 polyBUNNY tokens minted to them (caused by the flash loan attack) since 27 July 2021, 05:00 UTC.
In summary,
- As-of September 12, 2021 02:45UTC, there are 812,713.43 tokens minted to the team
- The 320,500.946 tokens were burned since July 27, 2021 05:00 UTC
- Since FRE mechanism has been activated due to the polyBUNNY price is greater than FRE threshold (500 polyBUNNY : 1 ETH), so 6% of claiming rewards will be minted for every claims instead of 36% minting rate.
Note: Need to better understand the FRE -> Read here - After monitoring the current minting rate week-by-week, there are around 2,000 polyBUNNY minted per day
So, if the polyBUNNY FRE mechanism keep activating like this, we will need to wait for 94–100 days to have 1 million tokens minted to the team.
812,713.43 + (2,000 * X days) = 1,000,000
X = (1,000,000–812,713.43) / 2000 = 94 days
And, in the worst case scenario, if we deduct the burned tokens to get the existing minted token. We will need to wait for 254–260 days to have 1 million tokens minted to the team.
(812,723.43–320,500.946) + (2,000 * X days) = 1,000,000
X = (1,000,000–492,222.484) / 2000 = 254 days
I keep trying not to mention or calculate the minted tokens because if I did. The result won’t look good as you may see above.
But, please don’t get me wrong, I’m always the fan of Bunny team but have to share this negative feedback sometimes.
“The polyBUNNY minted to the Dev team won’t reach 1 million tokens soon.”
Hopefully, the Mound team will rethink their strategy on this polyBUNNY thing.
(2) When/How will 100M Qubit tokens (in the Mound Vault) being farmed?
According to Mound Bulletin, the QBT Vault has been audited and will be launched before 26 Sept.
(3) APR of the QBT tokens in the Mound Vault?
I will try to predict the QBT Vault APR using the latest Qubit TVL. These numbers should be as follows:
- Rewards for BNB/BTC/ETH/USDT/BUSD Single Asset Vaults (SAV) on Qubit Platform= 770,000 QBT per day
- PancakeBunny SAV TVL as-of 12 Sept = 38.87 million USD which equals to 38.87 / 790.833 = 4.915% of Qubit Platform.
- The QBT Vault size for this month will equal to 100,000,000 QBT / 12 = 8.33 Million meaning that PancakeBunny will have 8.33 million qScore
- Since the total qScore on Qubit Platform as-of 12 Sept 2021 3:30UTC is around 4.952 million qScore.
So, the % portion of QBT Vault’s qScore = 8.33 / (4.952 + 8.33) = 62.71% - From the 2nd bullet above, the PancakeBunny SAV TVL = 4.915% of Qubit Platform while the qScore of QBT Vault will be 62.71% of Qubit platform. So, it is “more than enough” to boost 2.5X QBT rewards for PancakeBunny SAV
- % Portion of the QBT Bonus rewards generated by PancakeBunny SAV will be distributed to QBT Vault = 10%
PancakeBunny SAV’s QBT Rewards/day = 770,000 x 4.915% x 2.5x = 94,613
PancakeBunny SAV’s QBT Bonus/day = 94,613 x 1.5 / 2.5 = 56,767
QBT Vault’s QBT Bonus/day = 56,767 x 10% = 5,676 QBT per day
Even only 8.33 millions QBT tokens will be locked in the QBT Vault in this month, but I will calculate the %APR based on the 100,000,000 QBT under the Mound vault.
QBT in MND Vault %APR per day = 5,676 / 100,000,000 = 0.005676%
QBT in MND Vault %APR per year = 0.005676% x 365 = 2.07%
However, I knew the team may change their strategy from locking all 8.33 million QBT tokens each month to utilize them elsewhere. It could partially split into the QBT Deposit market so we can better utilize our 8.33 million QBT and maximize QBT farming profits to MND Vault.
So, we have to wait for the team announcement regarding how&where the QBT in MND Vault will be farmed first. So, please expect this 2.07% APR prediction as our “worst case scenario” we will get from the QBT under MND Vault in the coming days.
(4) Mound Valuation & Daily Reward generation
As-of 12th September 2021 2:30 UTC, the asset in Mound Vault are as follows:
- BUNNY = 3,000,000 tokens @ 5.49 USD : 72% APR
Note: Since 19 Aug until now, the Bunny Maxi pool hasn’t got the performance fees to boost its APR because the FRE mechanism is now using all fees to buy back BUNNY from the market instead of minting new ones
Need to understand BUNNY FRE -> Read my FRE article here - polyBUNNY = 0 tokens @ 2.56 USD : 189% APR
- QBT = 100,000,000 tokens @ 0.249 USD : 0% APR
the MND vault’s asset values = (3,000,000 x 5.49) + (100,000,000 x 0.249) = 41.37 millions USD
So far, there are only 2.073 Million MND tokens staked in the Mound Vault and around 10,000 MND tokens in form of MND/WBNB LP. So we may begin to assume that the remaining 634,000 MND tokens won’t be staked forever.
But, to be conservative, I will treat just some of them as permanently unstaked tokens.
So, from now on, I will calculate the NAV and token holdings per MND using the average between MND total supply and MND staked in the vault.
MND averaged tokens = 0.5 x [2.717 (Total Supply) + 2.073 (MND staked)] = 2.395
MND NAV per token = 41.37 / 2.395 = 17.273 USD
And for every 1 MND token holding, it equals to hold 3 tokens as follows:
- 3 / 2.395 = 1.252 BUNNY
- 0 / 2.395 = 0 polyBUNNY
- 100 / 2.395 = 41.753 QBT
The current daily rewards in Mound Vault will include:
BUNNY daily rewards = (3,000,000 x 5.49) x (72% / 365 days) = 32,488.76 USD
Note : this is around 5,917 BUNNY tokens per day
polyBUNNY daily rewards = 0 USD
Note : this is around 0 polyBUNNY tokens per day
Daily rewards per MND token = 32,488.76 / 2,395,000 = 0.0135 USD
Once QBT Vault launch (before 26 Sept), the daily rewards after 26 Sept will look like below.
QBT daily rewards = (100,000,000 x 0.249) x(2.07% / 365 days) = 1,412.13 USD
Note : this is around 5,671 QBT tokens per day
Daily rewards after 26 Sept per MND token = (32,488.76 + 1,412.13) / 2,395,000 = 0.0141 USD
So, the %APR of MND Vault after 26 Sept could be as follows:
= 0.0141 / 17.273 USD per day
= 0.0816 % APR per day
= 29.813% APR per year
Note :
- This number is the daily reward actually generated by Mound vault not counting the 75-days-accumulated BUNNY rewards from previous months
- You may notice that the APR on the Mound website showing 120% APR but please keep in mind that the rewards distributed this month includes both the 75-days-accumulated BUNNY rewards and the actual daily reward.
(5) MND Vault Reward Distribution Mechanism
At first, I think that the MND vault will equally divide the accumulated 585,000 BUNNY by 30 days to deliver them until reaching zero BUNNY in 30 days and we should get the reward rate as 585,000 / (30 days * 2,070,000 MND staked) = 0.0094 BUNNY / MND per day for 30 days going forward.
However, after monitoring the MND reward distribution since 10 Sept 2021 06:00UTC until now (12 Sept 2021 4:30 UTC), I notice that
- On Day 1, reward rate is 0.0095 BUNNY / MND per day
- On Day 2 , reward rate is 0.00916 BUNNY / MND per day
With this reward rate keep declining day-by-day, it seems to me like the 75-days-accumulated BUNNY rewards (585,000 BUNNY) won’t be fully distributed in 30 days.
And, with this distribution characteristics, it leads me to think that the MND Vault may use the same reward distribution mechanism as BUNNY Maxi pool implementation which is 30-Days-Amortization.
IMPORTANT : This is my assumption and I might be totally wrong. So, we need the team announcement to clarify this mechanism later.
Note: To better understand how 30-days-amortization looks like. Please read how the Bunny Maxi Reward Distribution mechanism works below or the 5th item in their article.
If we stick with the 30-days-amortization reward distribution method, we can then predict the reward per MND during 10–17 Sept as shown in the table below.
In simpler term, if we have 1,000 MND staked in the MND Vault, we should get around:
10-Sept-21 6:00UTC — 11-Sept-21 6:00UTC = 9.638 BUNNY
11-Sept-21 6:00UTC — 12-Sept-21 6:00UTC = 9.314 BUNNY
12-Sept-21 6:00UTC — 13-Sept-21 6:00UTC = 9.003 BUNNY
13-Sept-21 6:00UTC — 14-Sept-21 6:00UTC = 8.706 BUNNY
14-Sept-21 6:00UTC — 15-Sept-21 6:00UTC = 8.422 BUNNY
15-Sept-21 6:00UTC — 16-Sept-21 6:00UTC = 8.149 BUNNY
16-Sept-21 6:00UTC — 17-Sept-21 6:00UTC = 7.888 BUNNY
(6) Summary
If you look at the MND Vault reward distribution rate and mechanism above, I have to tell it is not a bad thing.
With this strategy, we won’t get a big surprise from large APR drop after 30 days passed.
This will help the reward distribution to smoothly decline to reach the actual daily rewards we should really get in upcoming months.
Note: See the actual daily rate at 4th Item above which is 29.813% APR
Another closing thought regarding FRE thing,
I’ve heard our Discord mod, mincus, shared the idea to the team to NOT immediately return the bought back BUNNY (FRE buying pressure) as the claiming rewards. Instead, we may allow the platform to always minting the BUNNY equals to 30% of performance fee and deliver those minted BUNNY as the claiming rewards first. Then, after one week, we can accumulate those bought back BUNNY (randomly buy during one week time period) and burn them on weekend plus announce these burns in the twitter and every possible channels we have had.
I totally agreed with his idea and I believe we can create “BURN” marketing contents even we do not change anything much and it seems to be very powerful marketing as if creating new products.
Shouldn’t we???
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Thank you for reading this long article. You may notice so many assumptions and calculations in this weekly update. So, please don’t treat these as financial advices and try to DYOR, I will try my best to not being too optimistic or pessimistic as well.
Lastly, please feel free to share any facts or thoughts regarding Mound here so we can strengthen this and upcoming articles to be more helpful for our family.
Regards,
Hope
[Mound Related Articles written by the Mound team]
https://tanatesukonrattanamaetee.medium.com/mound-related-articles-written-by-mound-team-3755e25cece
[My MND Articles]
https://tanatesukonrattanamaetee.medium.com/my-mound-articles-bc412aeb03ef